It’s been a few weeks since we’ve had a weekly report as I’ve been working on the draft and the our top 30 list, but it’s time again to talk about the observations over the past week in the Atlanta Braves minor league system (or past two, or three, wherever I see fit to extend my end points).
The biggest news on the minor league side of things has to be Sabin Ceballos being moved in exchange for Jorge Soler. Ceballos came in for us as our 25th-ranked prospect from the midseason list, and while I like a lot of what Ceballos can do I have no issues with this trade from a value perspective. The hope for the Giants in this case (beyond clearing Soler’s salary) is that they can get to Ceballos’s raw power — something that didn’t seem like it was on its way to happening for the Braves. Ceballos’s development this year has been one of the more disappointing aspects for the system as he just hasn’t made progress in any of the areas that he struggles with, and while the talent is there for him to be an above average defender at third that can get on base and hit for some power it wasn’t really looking like it was moving in that direction.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 48-54, 13-14 2nd half, 5th in IL West (4.5 GB)
Gwinnett has been doing quite well for themselves lately, but it’s largely a result of some of the veterans on offense stepping up. Yuli Gurriel in particular has been fantastic with a wRC+ north of 200 over the past month, and a two home run game last week certainly boosted that. There’s nowhere for Gurriel to play in Atlanta so don’t get too excited, but at least the Braves have a somewhat reasonable backup option to Matt Olson. The only player to really watch here is Drake Baldwin, and while Triple-A has started to find some of his cracks he still has managed to do very well. Baldwin has actually performed better against left handed hitters this season but I’m not really sure that’s anything more than sample variation. In his matchup last week against Jacob Lopez, who granted is generally a difficult matchup for any left-handed hitter, Baldwin showed a tendency to chase out of the zone that has been somewhat prevalant especially late in at bats against left handed pitching. That’s where ultimately I think the numbers for Baldwin will start to get cut into, but this is still the main area of improvement for my projections on Baldwin. I thought his defense and ability to hit right-handed batters were enough to make him an easy platoon bat, but with the improvements he’s made this year at making consistent, solid, in-zone contact against left-handed pitching I think he’s an every day player now with tremendous offensive upside. The biggest issue in his profile is his struggle with contact on fastballs in the upper half of the zone, something big league pitchers will certainly test him on when he is called up, but I don’t think his fastball issues are nearly as significant as they have been for Nacho Alvarez.
Also of note: Chadwick Tromp has not played since Monday’s game.
The Gwinnett pitching staff is starting to get healthy and they should be running with Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa, and Ian Anderson in the fold for awhile. Smith-Shawver I could see getting a shot in Atlanta soon, but the others in that trio really need more time before I would deem them ready for the big leagues though the bar for success there has been lowered a bit. Smith-Shawver has really struggled with his breaking balls this year and it actually has a lot to do with his mechanics. His release point is a bit lower which has made all of his pitches slightly more horizontal, and while his changeup has drastically improved he has just found the middle of the zone with his slider and curveball too often. His slider has been inconsistent throughout the year, and right now he’s searching for a go-to offering there but overall he has been fine when he has located his pitches.
Ynoa and Anderson both may get a chance this year but really neither are in a position to be good. Ynoa’s velocity was still significantly down in his last outing, and given how velo-reliant he is I don’t know how he can find success until that is solved. Anderson’s velocity is down too, but he averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball in his last start so he’s already regained his form rather quickly and is about 1 mph off from where he was pre-injury. It’s possible that he ends up throwing a touch harder than he did pre-injury, but right now velocity isn’t his concern so much as pitch shape and command. He’s not there yet, though I think he’s further along than Ynoa by a lot, as at the very least his changeup is still effective. He’s shown either a new breaking ball or a variation of his curveball that is a bit more horizontal and comes in at 200-300 rpm higher than what he was throwing pre-injury, so the development there is something I’m eager to watch. If Anderson can add a legit breaking ball it makes his profile even better, though I am also not convinced he just hasn’t found consistent feel for his curveball and that’s why the movement profile is all over the place. He isn’t landing the pitch with any consistency in its shape so it’s largely been ineffective so far.
Series Preview
Gwinnett takes on a solid Nashville Sounds team this week, but one that isn’t really prospect-laden. They do have two of the three top Brewers prospects on their roster, but Jeferson Quero has been out all season so Baseball America’s #66 prospect Tyler Black is their main hitting prospect. Black is a fantastic hitter who gets on base at a high rate, though his power is fringy for a first-base prospect. Their top pitching prospect is 17th-ranked Carlos Rodriguez, who has struggled both in Triple-A and in the Major Leagues this season. Rodriguez hasn’t been throwing enough strikes and has a 5.45 ERA for the Sounds this season, and since being demoted from Milwaukee has allowed five home runs in 16 2⁄3 innings. Their best hitter this season has been 28 year old Brewer Hicklen, who in a classic case of nominative determinism joined Milwaukee’s system after spending seven with the Royals (and then a short stint with Philly). Hicklen has been fantastic with a 135 wRC+ and 19 home runs in 80 games this season, though his hit tool questions have ultimately held him back from having a major league career.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 46-49, 15-12 2nd half, 2nd in SL South (2 GB)
The Southern League as a whole has been unable to hit for the last couple of weeks, so despite Mississippi having just a .603 team OPS in that span they’ve managed to rattle off a 6-3 record and team 2.58 ERA. While I’ve been wrapped up in draft coverage and this prospect listing Drue Hackenberg has been going absolutely bananas, mostly with his absurd 16 strikeout performance on the 21st. When Hackenberg is landing his four seam fastball and slider he has shown he can be a dominant player, and while some seem him as a back-end ceiling I think the addition of that fastball and the quality of his slider does give him more of a 3⁄4 ceiling though I remain skeptical he reaches that given his command regression. Still I can’t argue that these last two games have been glorious — 22 strikeouts and one walk in 12 innings — and if he can command his fastball and slider he will be a major league pitcher. His arsenal is too deep and his slider is too good for him to not get to major league quality as long as his command reaches even average.
Despite this being the “best” affiliate by record at least it’s not a particularly deep team, they just have so many solid, older fringe guys that they’ve managed to win a bunch of games. Lucas Braun is the other player I watch closely, though lately he’s been a bit less successful with a drop in his swing-and-miss. Braun was able to get by at the lower levels by just filling the zone with fastballs and slider and expecting that High-A hitters couldn’t hit it. It was true then, but at Double-A these guys are better and he’s having to work a bit more towards the edges. I’m not at all concerned with Braun — I think the command along with the slider makes him a guy that gets to the big leagues quickly — he just has some approach and sequencing work to do. As well, his changeup is the pitch that really needs to get consistent reps for him though I expect it’s going to end up an average major league pitch.
Series Preview
Mississippi find themselves in the playoff race despite a -9 run differential in the second half, but now they will welcome the Tennessee Smokies into town and this is a very talented group of guys. They feature three of the Chicago Cubs’s top seven prospects, including two top 100 hitters. Matt Shaw, BA’s #41 overall prospect, has been phenomenal for the Smokies this season. With an OPS over .800 and 13 home runs he has not has too much trouble with the Southern League, and he tagged the M-Braves for four home runs in their last series. Shaw has a 1.101 OPS and seven home runs over his past 21 games.
Kevin Alcantara (BA #84) hasn’t been quite as successful as Shaw as his hit tool is a biggest question mark, but he is a terrifying talent who has still managed a .755 OPS. The M-Braves managed to avoid Alcantara as he didn’t play between June 7th and June 25th, but he has been on a mission since returning. He just saw an 11 game hitting streak ended in the last game the Smokies played, and over his past 20 games has cut his strikeouts, hit four home runs, and has a .967 OPS. The Smokies also have James Triantos, the Cubs 2021 second round pick, has been a contact machine with a strikeout rate barely above 10% and a .784 OPS, though he doesn’t walk much and may not hit for enough power for a guy who won’t stick at shortstop.
Rome Emperors
Record: 46-48, 10-20 2nd half, 6th in SAL South (9.5 GB)
It’s been tough scenes for Emperors fans lately. The leading strikeout arm over the last two weeks is reliever Shay Schanaman. The Emperors have hit one home run in that span. There’s not a ton to love here, but there is much more to like than the record suggests. Like Drew Compton, who despite struggling offensively has still very much been a factor by drawing walks and consistently putting the ball in play. Compton is an interesting bat because I do feel there is MLB potential there but he will either need to jump a grade in power or transition over to third base. With Sabin Ceballos gone the latter option could be in play, but as a first baseman whose only real skill is getting on base it would be hard for him to carve out a market. EJ Exposito has been riding the struggle bus hard but I’m not terrible down on him still. He’s definitely been overly-aggressive, but he is the player on the team that makes contact (specifically hard contact) most often and I think he’s eventually break out of his slump. Breaking ball recognition remains his biggest obstacle, that and him just not being good enough to stick at shortstop, but I’m not losing hope here. Ambioris Tavarez could return this year — he is taking swings last I heard — so hopefully Expo can get back to his natural second base soon. Overall though the only guy who is really doing anything is Ethan Workinger and even he hasn’t been hitting for much power. I think there is enough raw strength for Workinger to be an MLB fourth outfielder — he certainly gets on base enough — it’s just not been a consistent package.
Jhancarlos Lara had his best game of the season last week and it really has been a solid turnaround this season after a bad start. His injury set him back but his command rounded into its best form last week and when he has that he is still dominant. His raw stuff is overpowering at this level and the Braves have been fiddling with stuff like splitters and curveballs to try to give him a chance to start. The rest of the team was a bit less exciting. Blake Burkhalter has been solid, but his command of his slider and changeup is not good enough right now so he is effectively working with four seam fastballs and cutters only. He’s done well enough and his cutter can be dominant when he locates it, but he’s been missing low and glove side with it too often putting it either out of the zone or towards the middle of the zone where it gets hit. I like Burkhalter and his pitch shapes a lot, but his command is suffering so far in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s not as good as Spencer Schwellenbach, but it’s a similar spot to where Schwellenbach was last year where despite the walk rates his command kind of makes all of his pitches play down and be a bit hittable, but the confidence I had in Schwellenbach is here. I expect he will come back much stronger next year and play himself into MLB contention.
Series Preview
The struggling Emperors now face a powerhouse team in the Bowling Green Hot Rods, who may have a new face to add this week. Dylan Lesko was assigned to the Hot Rods following the recent trade that sent him to the Rays, and while he is listed as not yet reported I imagine he will join the team this week. Lesko won’t be the top prospect the Braves have to contend with though. Xavier Isaac (BA #22), Brayden Taylor (BA #59), Tre Morgan (BA #8 Rays), and Colton Ledbetter (BA #17 Rays) are still hanging around to torment the South Atlantic League and Rome will hopefully not be their next victim. There is so much power and hitting talent in this lineup that it’s terrifying to see these guys go against, though Mississippi’s pitching staff has largely been solid in recent weeks.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 37-57, 9-19 2nd Half, 6th in CAR South (9 GB)
The GreenJackets are bad but at least they are fun, with the most exciting lineup in the system by a wide margin. Largely though, the new trio of Luis Guanipa (BP #9), John Gil (BP #19), and Junior Garcia (BP #29 following the Ceballos trade and Vines DFA) hasn’t been very good. Of the group Gil has been by far the best with a .740 OPS, and while the contact hasn’t been nearly what it was in rookie ball I’ve been impressed. There is obvious bat speed for him to project to average big league power, and despite a pretty aggressive swing he tends to find contact quite often. The biggest thing for him will be his approach as he tends to swing at everything in the zone and expand on breaking balls too often, and though he has been able to make contact on bad pitches to avoid strikeouts he hasn’t done so in a way that generates valuable batted balls.
Largely Luis Guanipa is what I expected. Incredibly twitchy, has the ability to find the barrel, and far too aggressive to really do much with it. The aggression out of the zone is what really causes Guanipa issues, but I’m high on him overall despite it. He makes plenty of contact on all pitches and has the explosive tools that I think the power will come. His bat path is flat and he isn’t swinging for power, both of which will impact his productivity, but I think similar to how Ronald Acuna Jr. was at the same age it is just a matter of the coaching getting him a deeper bat path and telling him to hit fly balls. He needs to improve his eye but he’s young and has superstar potential. Garcia I’m still a bit hesitant on overall. It’s really all projection for him because the body and the swing looks like it should produce a ton of raw power but so far he hasn’t hit the ball particularly well. He has a great eye at the plate and I’m high on his pitch recognition, so I don’t worry about him getting on base but I haven’t seen the bat speed or barrel feel to project an MLB hit tool yet. He’s 19 and has plenty of room to grow into those tools, and they will need to shorten his swing a bit, so I’m not down on him in any particular way I just think he’s much riskier than the other two who are displaying in-game hit tools.
It’s getting late in the season and the pitching staff is getting a bit shallow here. Adam Maier hasn’t pitched in awhile, and Jeremy Reyes just hit the injured list after leaving his last start with an apparent shoulder injury. However Augusta has added JR Ritchie, who I am impressed to see back from Tommy John surgery so soon. Ritchie’s command has been inconsistent and that isn’t a surprise at all. It’s going to take time to get his feel for pitches back, and largely he is still flashing that good slider it’s just a matter of consistency. As long as he’s healthy this year is a win for him and that’s been the case so far. Didier Fuentes struck out eight batters in his last start, and it’s kind of comical how consistent he has been. He really just hasn’t had a bad start in months — every single start since May (11 starts) he has had more strikeouts than innings pitched. I need to see him develop a changeup but it’s incredible to see someone this dominant at this age. Garrett Baumann had an interesting start as well with eight strikeouts over four innings. This is the best we’ve seen Baumann do at changing levels with his fastball, something that should benefit him moving forward. He basically lived in the bottom half of the zone with everything over the first few months of the season, and it’s easy for hitters at any level to predict what you’ve doing when they don’t even have to account for half of the strike zone. Baumann’s changeup is unbelievable, and though I am skeptical of his slider he has been a bit more effective with it lately.
Series Preview
The GreenJackets now have a tough assignment for their offense, as they face the Down East Wood Ducks and their buzz saw pitching rotation. This has been by far the best rotation in the Carolina League this season with a team ERA of 3.15, and while few of them are really top prospects for the Rangers a lot have experience. The trio of Jose Gonzalez (100 K, 2.08 ERA in 73 2⁄3 IP), Brayan Mendoza (2.54 ERA), and David Davalillo (1.95 ERA) has been absurdly dominant. Then they have their 7th round pick from last year, Izack Tiger, who on name alone deserves recognition. Oh, and he has been dominant with a 2.41 ERA in five outings for Down East because every pitcher on this roster is an ace, apparently. They also do have some hitters, the most notable being Rangers #10 prospect Echedry Vargas. Vargas has had a very good season, showing off a hit tool and solid power to add up to a .736 OPS. Vargas is a bit aggressive at the plate and Augusta’s pitchers could look to take advantage of that.
FCL Braves
Record: 16-30, 6th in FCL South (11 GB)
DSL Braves
Record: 7-15, 8th in DSL West (9 GB)
Once that aforementioned trio was called up it was lights out for the FCL Braves, who limped to the finish line of the season. There just wasn’t much to take away in terms of positive performances, as even Luis Arestigueta — their top pitching prospect — struggled to throw strikes down the stretch. The one player that did show out was Carlos Monteverde, who was finally promoted to the DSL and dominated. Monteverde hasn’t shown much power yet, but makes a ton of contact and draws a ton of walks which should make him a really interesting guy that hopefully gets a shot in full season ball next year. The DSL Braves are far more interesting off of the strength of one player, and that is top international signing Jose Perdomo. I can’t remember if Perdomo was playing the last time I did one of these reports, but I’m thinking not because he is only at six games. I’m happy to see him on the field, though that hasn’t been often as the Braves have been incredibly careful and haven’t even played him back-to-back games yet. Before the FCL season started in May there were whispers Perdomo might be out for the whole year, so seeing him playing games is already above my expectations and hopefully he plays enough for us to glean some real information.
Jose Perdomo
